Tuesday, May 2, 2017

Trump is spontaneously re-writing America's foreign policy playbook Trump is spontaneously re-writing America's foreign policy playbook

U.S. President Donald Trump welcomes Egypt U.S. President Donald Trump welcomes Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi at the White House in Washington, U.S. Thomson Reuters

Autocratic leaders who may have had strained relationships with past US presidential administrations due to dubious human-rights records appear to have a new ally in the White House.

President Donald Trump's willingness to engage with some of the world's most notorious strongmen was on full display last weekend, when he extended White House invitations to Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte and Thai Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha. Both the Philippines and Thailand enjoy treaties with the US, but their leaders' brutal crackdowns on drugs and dissent have marred their relationships with the West. 

Then on Monday, Trump said he would be "honored" to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un over his country's nuclear weapons program, provided certain conditions were first met.

The overtures prompted outrage among human-rights experts and some Democratic lawmakers. Duterte's merciless anti-drug campaign has left more than 7,000 people dead since he took office in late June 2016, according to the Filipino news site Rappler. Nearly 3,000 have died at the hands of police.

North Korea's Kim, meanwhile, operates secretive prison camps where suspected dissidents are tortured, starved, and forced into hard labor. There is no free speech or religious liberty in North Korea, which has repeatedly threatened to attack its neighbors — and, ultimately, the US — with nuclear weapons. 

"We are watching in real time as the American human rights bully pulpit disintegrates into ash," Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy tweeted Sunday.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Saudi Deputy Crown Prince and Minister of Defense Mohammed bin Salman meet at the White House  in Washington, U.S., March 14, 2017. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque Trump meets Saudi crown prince at the White House in Washington Thomson Reuters

The White House has defended the invitation to Duterte — who called President Barack Obama an "idiot" and "son of a whore" after his administration raised concerns about the country's drug war and extra-judicial killings — as simply a "meeting," not a "thank you." An administration official told Reuters that it was aimed at preventing the Philippines from pivoting completely away from the US, which could "intensify" Duterte's "bad behavior."

But the outreach to Duterte and Chan-ocha — the Thai prime minister who heads a military junta and seized power in a coup in 2014 — was not the first time Trump has displayed an unforced affinity for, and even attempted to legitimize, leaders with authoritarian reputations.

Throughout his presidential campaign, Trump praised Russian President Vladimir Putin as a strong leader and called it a "great honor to be so nicely complimented by a man so highly respected within his own country and beyond." Trump has twice defended Putin against accusations that he murders journalists and dissidents, saying in September that he hadn't seen "any evidence that [Putin] killed anybody" and telling Bill O'Reilly in February that in the US, "we kill people, too."

When Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won a referendum last month allowing him to vastly expand his presidential authorities and consolidate power, Trump called to congratulate him on his victory. The White House readout of the call did not mention Erdogan's crackdown on dissent, which has only intensified since a failed coup threatened his grip on power last summer.

In early April, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was received at the White House for the first time since he seized power in a coup nearly four years ago. Trump praised the Egyptian strongman, saying they agreed "on so many things" and that el-Sisi had done a "fantastic job in a very difficult situation." El-Sisi orchestrated the removal of the democratically elected Mohamed Morsi in July 2013.

Trump Xi President Donald Trump welcomes Chinese President Xi Jinping at Mar-a-Lago state in Palm Beach, Florida. Reuters/Carlos Barria

Trump has also developed a "very good relationship" with Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has intensified China's longtime policy of censorship and intolerance of dissent (which has included the periodic abduction of government critics), according to Human Rights Watch. Trump has said he and Xi have "great chemistry," an abrupt turn after he frequently lambasted China along the campaign trail.

Trump's behavior in the foreign policy arena, experts say, is either an indication of how he views strength and good governance, or a signal of his broader understanding that the US-led global order — and its commitment to liberal democratic values — is eroding.

Or both.

'There's certainly a tradition of collaborating with unsavory dictators'

The US has a long history of cooperating with authoritarian or dictatorial regimes in the name of furthering US national security interests.

The George W. Bush and Obama administrations continued supporting Hosni Mubarak, for example, even as they criticized the rights abuses that ultimately brought him down in 2011. And critics say Obama prioritized America's strategic partnership with Turkey, a key NATO ally, while not doing enough to punish Erdogan for his rights abuses.

Both Bush and Obama, moreover, maintained the US' support for Saudi Arabia, which human-rights organizations have judged as among the most repressive countries in the world. 

"There is certainly a tradition in America's foreign policy history of collaborating with unsavory dictators in the name of pursuing our own security interests," said William Inboden, a professor of public affairs at the University of Texas at Austin who served as the senior director for strategic planning on the National Security Council under George W. Bush.

The difference, however, is that previous presidents tended to caveat these partnerships with either a public or private warning about the need to uphold human rights and the rule of law. 

trump Lucas Jackson/Reuters

"Just about every administration since Franklin Roosevelt has had to cooperate with dictators, to some extent, in the name of US strategic interests," Inboden said, pointing to Roosevelt's alignment with Joseph Stalin during World War II to counter Nazi Germany. "But the US also has a consistent record of pushing these countries quietly, and sometimes publicly, to democratize and respect human rights."

Obama was slow to hold Erdogan accountable, but he refused to invite Erdogan to the Oval Office last April and expressed his concerns about the Turkish leader's "repression" on the sidelines of last year's Nuclear Security Summit in Washington. He was also a frequent critic of the  Saudis' human rights abuses, and called on them to "share the neighborhood" with Iran after the US-led nuclear deal was signed.

Ned Price, the senior director of the National Security Council under Obama, said "engagement with adversaries absolutely has the potential to strengthen our national security and provide new opportunities to the American people."

"The Iran deal and new approach to Cuba are prime examples," Price said. "But this brand of principled engagement — predicated on years of preparation and ground work and always guided by our interests and values — is a far cry from what we've seen from this administration."

The White House has yet to release a statement condemning the human rights abuses of authoritarian leaders that Trump has spoken to or met with since taking office, even as the State Department has issued more nuanced reactions. In contrast to previous presidents, moreover, Trump himself has not reiterated the US's commitment to human rights and democracy in his joint press conferences with Egypt's el-Sisi, Price said.

"In offering some of his highest pride to some of the world's most brutal leaders, President Trump and his administration have left our values by the wayside, in some cases going out of their way to make clear they will not raise human rights and other previously indispensable elements in public," Price said. "That is not only a break from past Republican and Democratic administrations, it's also an affront to America's traditional role in the world."

'We need friends, and we need allies'

US Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley said shortly after Trump met with el-Sisi that the administration is "going to play with whoever we need to play with" in order to further its counterterrorism goals. She said Trump "didn't say [el-Sisi] was 'fantastic' with human rights."

White House press secretary Sean Spicer reiterated that point Monday, telling reporters that Trump believes it is more effective to "build relationships" with these leaders privately than to chastise their human-rights practices in public statements.

Former US ambassador Jim Jeffrey, who served as assistant to the president and deputy national security adviser under George W. Bush, said Trump may be on to something.

"Trump finds himself willy-nilly committed to the global security order," said Jeffrey, who previously served as deputy assistant secretary for the State Department's Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs. "That requires working both with important allies and with difficult foes such as China and Russia."

To some extent, Jeffrey argued, it also requires the "ability to filter unpleasant realities" — like the fact that the US' ability to influence other leaders' governing styles "has always been vastly overrated."

Supporters of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan wave national flags as they wait for his arrival at the Presidential Palace in Ankara, Turkey, April 17, 2017. REUTERS/Umit Bektas Supporters of Turkish President Erdogan wave national flags as they wait for his arrival at the Presidential Palace in Ankara Thomson Reuters

"Trump doesn't seem overly concerned with the core of liberal democratic thinking," Jeffrey said.

And that may ultimately be to his advantage.

Jeffrey, a 35-year diplomatic and foreign policy veteran,  noted that the "arc of history" seemed to be steadily turning away from liberal democracy and toward nationalism — even as Obama made a point of criticizing leaders like Erdogan and Putin, who have been reelected several times and enjoy high levels of domestic support despite their shaky commitment to human rights.

"When the arc of history was turning towards liberal democracy, American foreign policy could consist largely of beating up on people who weren't getting on the 'arc of history' train," Jeffrey said. "But it's obvious that this arc has broken down — there's been a turn away from liberal democracy and toward nationalism everywhere from the United States and Britain to France, Poland, and Romania."

Jeffrey said that the global order is more stable when it is comprised of states who respect both their citizens and each other. But he said that now, amid the erosion of the US-led global order, "we need friends, and we need allies."

'Birds of a feather flock together'

Inboden, the University of Texas professor who served under Bush, said that approach seems "very strategically short-sighted." Others don't think there's a strategy behind it at all.

Derek Chollet served as the principal deputy director Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's policy planning staff and, later, as the special assistant to Obama and senior director for strategic planning at the National Security Council. He said Trump may simply be "intuitively" attracted to the authoritarian leadership style.

"Birds of a feather flock together," Chollet said, adding that Trump — "more than any president in modern history, or ever" — has expressed authoritarian tendencies and beliefs.

"Whether it's the way he speaks about his enemies, the free press, or democratic constraints, his intuition tends to be authoritarian," Chollet added. "It's not a strategy, per se. It probably just feels natural for him."

Trump has called the press "the enemy of the American people" and lamented the ability of federal judges to block his immigration orders. He also questioned the judgment of the US intelligence community when it unanimously concluded that Russia had interfered in the 2016 election to boost his candidacy and undermine Hillary Clinton.

Chollet acknowledged that the US' commitment to human rights is often in conflict with its need to preserve and foster certain diplomatic relationships, a point Spicer made during his briefing on Monday.

"It's a very tricky balance," Chollet said. But it requires "making clear that, even amid these partnerships, we still stand by human rights, are concerned about what is happening inside those countries, and are prepared to opt out of these partnerships if necessary."

Inboden agreed.

"The Erdogans and el-Sisis of the world will always try to peddle a bogus bargain to the US," Inboden said. Namely, that the US has no leverage when it comes to condemning human rights abuses because it can't afford to alienate the leaders of such strategically important countries — no matter how questionable their governing style may be.

"We've seen that pattern before," Inboden said. "But, judging by America's diplomatic tradition, we can balance those competing interests." 

Monday, May 1, 2017

Congress has reached a budget deal to fund the federal government through September Congress has reached a budget deal to fund the federal government through September

Paul Ryan Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R-WI) (3rd L) shares a laugh with Republican members of Congress after signing legislation to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Getty / Chip Somodevilla

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. congressional negotiators have hammered out a bipartisan agreement on a spending package to keep the federal government funded through the end of the current fiscal year on Sept. 30, a senior congressional aide said on Sunday.

The House of Representatives and Senate must approve the deal before the end of Friday and send it to President Donald Trump for his signature to avoid the first government shutdown since 2013.

The Washington Post reported that Congress was expected to vote early this week on the agreement that is expected to include increases for defense spending and border security.

The Republican-led Congress averted a U.S. government shutdown last Friday by voting for a stop-gap spending bill that gave lawmakers another week to work out federal spending over the final five months of the fiscal year.

Congress was tied up for months trying to work out $1 trillion in spending priorities for the current fiscal year. Lawmakers were supposed to have taken care of the fiscal 2017 appropriations bills by last Oct. 1.

Democrats backed Friday's stop-gap bill a day after House Republican leaders again put off a vote on major healthcare legislation sought by Trump and opposed by Democrats to dismantle the 2010 Affordable Care Act, dubbed Obamacare, after Republican moderates balked at provisions added to entice hard-line conservatives.

Trump earlier bowed to Democratic demands that the spending legislation for the rest of the fiscal year not include money to start building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border he said is needed to fight illegal immigration and stop drug smugglers.

The Trump administration also agreed to continue funding for a major component of Obamacare despite Republican vows to end the program.

(Reporting by Will Dunham and Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Peter Cooney)

Read the original article on Reuters. Copyright 2017. Follow Reuters on Twitter.

More from Reuters:

  • Germany's cabinet has approved a plan to fine social media companies up to €50 million over hate speech (FB)
  • Prosecutor accuses Samsung chief of conspiring to hide millions of dollars in bribes (SSNLF)
  • The world's largest tech fund is considering a $1 billion plus investment in WeWork
  • Silicon Valley is financing the fight against Trump's immigration policy (BOX, NFLX, MSFT, AAPL)
  • Samsung just recalled nearly 3 million washing machines because they might explode

Sunday, April 30, 2017

Trump says China is 'putting pressure' on North Korea over test-fired missiles Trump says China is 'putting pressure' on North Korea over test-fired missiles

Trump and the Chinese president Carlos Barria/Reuters

Washington (AFP) - Donald Trump thinks Chinese President Xi Jinping is "putting pressure" on North Korea, the US president said in an interview to air Sunday, as tensions mount over Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs.

If North Korea carries out a nuclear test "I would not be happy," Trump told the CBS television network's "Face the Nation" program.

"And I can tell you also, I don't believe that the president of China, who is a very respected man, will be happy either," Trump said in excerpts of the interview released Saturday.

Asked if "not happy" signified "military action," Trump answered: "I don't know. I mean, we'll see."

North Korea test-fired a missile over the weekend in apparent defiance of a concerted US push for tougher international sanctions to curb Pyongyang's nuclear weapons ambitions.

The latest launch, which South Korea said was a failure, came just hours after US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson warned the UN Security Council of "catastrophic consequences" if the international community -- most notably China -- failed to pressure the North into abandoning its weapons program.

Trump assailed the failed launch as a show of disrespect toward its ally China.

"North Korea disrespected the wishes of China & its highly respected President when it launched, though unsuccessfully, a missile today. Bad!" Trump wrote on Twitter.

North Korea is seeking to develop a long-range missile capable of hitting the US mainland with a nuclear warhead.

China, Pyongyang's number one trade partner, has repeatedly called for a return to talks on denuclearization but has been reluctant to use economic pressure that could destabilize North Korea. 

More from AFP:

  • German prosecutors are investigating VW's chairman
  • US alarm as Turkey warns Syrian Kurd militia of more strikes
  • Uber suspends services in Abu Dhabi
  • Tapeworm drug stops Zika from replicating in lab: study
  • Ex-Dodgers owner McCourt set for Marseille takeover

Saturday, April 29, 2017

TRUMP'S FIRST 100 DAYS: Here's how they compare with Obama's, Bush's, and Clinton's TRUMP'S FIRST 100 DAYS: Here's how they compare with Obama's, Bush's, and Clinton's

2x1Skye Gould/Business Insider

Franklin D. Roosevelt got more done in his first 100 days in office than any president before him or any since. He took office in the depths of the Great Depression, enacting a dizzying number of laws and signing executive orders to stabilize the economy with the New Deal.

Roosevelt is the reason people focus on the first 100 days. When presidents take office, they have the most political capital to enact their agenda. Studies have found that it's the most productive time for legislative action.

Of course, presidents don't have total control over their time in office. Ronald Reagan was shot during his first 100 days and spent the last month in the hospital. Bill Clinton's first months were distracted by the controversial "don't ask, don't tell" military policy, then the fatal raid in Waco, Texas. George W. Bush bombed Iraq, and Barack Obama had to save Captain Richard Phillips from Somali pirates.

Donald Trump's 100th day in office is Saturday. How has his tenure compared with that of the last three presidents?

We looked at how many executive orders they signed, how many laws they enacted, how the economy performed, where they traveled, what their approval ratings were, and, for fun, how often they golfed.

Here's how they stack up:

View As: One Page Slides

Friday, April 28, 2017

Elon Musk just revealed new details about his tunneling project that could change transportation forever Elon Musk just revealed new details about his tunneling project that could change transportation forever

boring company photo Screenshot

Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed new details about his futuristic tunnel-boring project during his TED Talk on Friday.

The Boring Company, Musk's latest venture, led by SpaceX engineer Steve Davis, is working on building a network of underground tunnels in Los Angeles that would transport cars on an electric skate. The skate would propel cars through the tunnel at a maximum speed of 130 mph — fast enough to get from Westwood to Los Angeles in five minutes, Musk said.

Musk showed the very first visualization of the project during his TED Talk. A car would pull into a metal container that would then transport it underground:


An electric skate would then rocket the car through the tunnel:


Musk has said the underground network would include as many as 30 layers of tunnels, which could accommodate cars and a Hyperloop.

The Boring Company is currently building a demo tunnel in SpaceX's parking lot, but it would need permits from the city of Los Angeles to extend beyond the property line. Musk has already acquired the domain name BoringCompany.com.

Musk is juggling quite a few projects on top of the Boring Company, including Tesla's upcoming Model 3 launch and the rollout of a solar roof product. He also launched an artificial-intelligence company, Neuralink, while being the CEO of SpaceX and Tesla.

But Musk said the Boring Company was taking only "2 or 3 percent" of his time. Interns and Tesla employees are working part-time on the project.

Tunnel-boring is a notoriously expensive process. The Boring Company is looking to cut down costs by building a machine that can dig and place reinforcements in the wall at the same time, Musk said. Tunneling machines traditionally dig for half the time and then go back to add reinforcements, a longer and costlier process.

Musk said the Boring Company would also cut costs by improving the power and thermal limit of its tunneling machine by "a factor of four or five."

"We have a pet snail called Gary. ... So Gary is capable of currently going 14 times faster than a tunnel boring machine," Musk said. "We want to beat Gary. He is not a patient little fellow, and that will be victory."

Get the latest Tesla stock price here.

Thursday, April 27, 2017

Amazon crushed its earnings Amazon crushed its earnings

Jeff Bezos Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos.Michael Seto/Business Insider

Amazon announced its first-quarter financial results on Thursday, and it blew by what Wall Street was looking for.

The stock was up about 4% in after-hours trading following the report.

Here were the key numbers:

  • Revenue of $35.71 billion, versus Wall Street estimates of $35.3 billion. A nice beat. This was $29.1 billion a year ago.
  • EPS of $1.48, versus estimates of $1.13 per share, non-GAAP. This compares with non-GAAP EPS of $1.07 per share a year ago. A big beat as well.

Analysts were also closely watching the performance of Amazon's cloud computing unit, Amazon Web Services.

AWS reported $3.66 billion in revenue and 43% growth, which beat the analyst consensus of $3.65 billion in revenue and 42% growth. Last quarter, AWS didn't grow quite as fast as people had expected.

Even though it beat predictions, AWS growth still slowed down. In the previous three quarters, AWS experienced 47%, 55%, and 58% growth.

Other key stats:

  • Overall, first-quarter sales were up 23%.
  • Retail subscription services, which is mostly Amazon Prime but includes a few other things, like music, hit $1.94 billion, up 49% year-over-year.

Next quarter, Amazon expects sales of between $35.25 billion and $37.75 billion, or to grow by between 16% and 24% compared with Q2 2016.

This factors in $720 million of headwinds from foreign-exchange rates, the company says. That's right in line with what the Street is looking for, with analysts expecting $36.84 billion.

Here's the full Amazon press release.

Visit Markets Insider for constantly updated market quotes for individual stocks, ETFs, indices, commodities and currencies traded around the world. Go Now!

We still haven’t heard from aliens – here’s why we might never

SETI
Anybody out there?

David Nunuk/Science Photo Library

By Leah Crane

THE most ambitious search so far for extraterrestrial intelligence has released its first data – and there are no aliens yet. The lack of success could be explained by the result of a new approach to calculating the likelihood of detecting alien signals. This calculation suggests we might never make contact, even if extraterrestrial __life is common.

The search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) has been active for decades. Breakthrough Listen aims to be the largest, most comprehensive search ever. The $100 million initiative uses three of the world’s most sensitive telescopes to look for alien signals from the 1 million closest stars to Earth and the 100 closest galaxies.

“It’s like finding a needle in a haystack,” says Seth Shostak at the SETI Institute in California. “But we don’t know how many needles are there.”

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Read more: The five best exoplanets in the galaxy to check for alien life

Breakthrough Listen team members have analysed the light from 692 stars so far. They have found 11 potential alien signals, none of which remained promising after further analysis.

“It’s the beginning of a very exciting time,” says Avi Loeb at Harvard University. “But while it’s exciting, it’s still very risky. We could find nothing.”

That’s exactly what an assessment by Claudio Grimaldi at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne predicts.

Most methods for calculating the likelihood of detecting alien signals start with an expected number of sources. Instead, Grimaldi started with what volume of the galaxy could be reached by alien signals, a value that requires fewer assumptions about the nature and abundance of extraterrestrial life.

“It’s the beginning of a very exciting time. But while it’s exciting, it’s still very risky. We could find nothing”

Grimaldi assumed that signals from an extraterrestrial emitter might get weaker or be blocked as they travel, so they would only cover a certain volume of space. It’s relatively simple to calculate the probability that Earth is within that space and so able to detect the signal. “Not all signals can be visible at the same time – only those that intersect with the Earth,” says Grimaldi.

He found that even if half of our galaxy was full of alien noise, the average number of signals that we would be able to detect from Earth is less than one (Scientific Reports, doi.org/b562).

This implies that, even if there are lots of aliens out there, we might never be able to hear from them. But some researchers take umbrage: Grimaldi’s method still requires you to plug in numbers for how far alien signals could be detectable and how long they last – neither of which is known.

“You have to make some assumptions about what the aliens are doing in all these calculations, unfortunately, and the data set that we have with alien activity is fairly sparse,” says Shostak. Our only example of intelligent __life is on Earth, and there’s little reason to expect that ET resembles us.

Read more: Cassini finds final ingredient for alien life in Enceladus’s sea

But, says Loeb, extraterrestrial signals should be no harder to find than other astronomical events.

“The question of whether you can detect a signal has nothing to do with whether it’s artificial or natural, and astronomers routinely detect lots of kinds of signals,” he says.

“In SETI, theory is great, but observation is the gold standard,” says Douglas Vakoch, president of METI International, which aims to send messages to extraterrestrial intelligence. It’s not difficult to think up a different signal that we would be able to detect, he says.

For example, if there were alien life at the TRAPPIST-1 planets, just 40 light years away, they wouldn’t need particularly advanced technology to contact us. It seems implausible that we would miss their call.

This article appeared in print under the headline “Why we might never detect alien signals”