The Great Barrier Reef might emerge as the winner this week in an election in Queensland, Australia. Early indications are that voters have chosen to throw out the state government, which has been criticised for its attitude of "development at all costs".
The conservative Liberal National Party was voted to power in 2012 and has pledged to continue developing coal mines, which were linked to controversial port expansions that can harm the reef.
"We were very disappointed in the policies of the previous government," says Nick Heath, Great Barrier Reef programme manager at WWF-Australia. "If those policies had continued, the reef's spiral of decline would be accelerated."
The reef faces major threats from climate change, port development, shipping and nutrient run-off from agriculture that boosts populations of crown-of-thorns starfish, which destroy the coral.
As part of his election campaign, Queensland Premier Campbell Newman promised the development of a number of coal mines in the Galilee Basin in Queensland, including what would be the largest coal mine in Australia – the Carmichael Mine. Whoever operated the mine would be given an open-ended exemption from paying royalties to the government, and Newman committed to using public money to build the rail lines and airports needed by the project.
Climate cost
The coal mines would be contributing to climate change. For example, just two of the mines in the basin, the proposed Kevin's Corner mine and the recently approved Alpha mine, would pump the equivalent of more than 3.7 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere in total over their 30-year lifetime – triple the expected emissions over the 50-year lifetime of the controversial Keystone XL pipeline in the US.
And exporting that coal from the Galilee Basin is one of the main reasons for the proposed expansion of the Abbot Point port, which would release plumes of soil over the reef and increase shipping traffic.
Meanwhile, the Labor opposition's pledges include a "save the reef" policy that would remove subsidies for coal mines in the Galilee Basin. This has led some to speculate that the mining would not go ahead, which could also put a stop to port expansion.
Labor also said that, if elected, it will aim to reduce nutrient run-off from some major agricultural regions by 80 per cent in a decade and spend AU$100 million to improve water quality.
"Reefs cannot grow or recover in polluted water," says Heath. "If the opposition forms government, the reef has a far better chance of recovery."
Jon Brodie from James Cook University in Queensland remains cautiously optimistic, saying it would be a positive change for the reef. "Things will definitely be a bit different at Abbot Point, but exactly how is not clear yet."
At the time of writing, the Labor party was four seats ahead of the ruling party, having won 43 of the 45 seats required to form government.
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