All that Andy Murray needs to try and do is not let Novak Djokovic widen the gap at the Paris Masters next week in order to achieve his ultimate goal of becoming world No 1, says Barry Cowan.
Murray continued his march towards the top spot by winning the Erste Bank Open in Vienna on Sunday.
Super Murray wins in Vienna
Andy Murray beats Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to win Erste Bank Open in Vienna
The 29-year-old Scot swept past Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 6-3 7-6 (8-6) with an immaculate display in the final to earn his seventh title of the year.
The Olympic and Wimbledon champion __can take over the world No 1 ranking from Djokovic if he wins next week's Paris Masters and the Serb fails to reach the final.
Djokovic has been handed a tough route to the title in Paris, where he will start in the second round against Spain's Nicolas Almagro or in-form Gilles Muller of Luxembourg.
The top ranking could come to a head when he faces a blockbuster semi-final clash against US Open champion Stan Wawrinka.
Murray's route is also a tough one and includes a potential opening second round match against Fernando Verdasco before facing Roberto Bautista Agut, Tomas Berdych and then a mouth-watering semi-final date against Milos Raonic or Kei Nishikori.
And Sky Sports tennis expert Cowan feels Murray __can do it if the mathematics work in his favour.
"Realistically, this is going to be very tough for Andy next week going into Paris," Cowan said. "The hardest will be the first couple of rounds in Paris, and if he can get through those and the closer to the weekend he gets then I think he will be feeling better in himself and then he starts to see the finishing line.
"Djokovic is fresh, but Djokovic has not won big matches of late and so long as Andy can have a chance mathematically and it's in his control going into London - I think he'll do it."
Cowan also pointed to Murray's impressive big match temperament, where he has been forced to slug it out in order to win matches and was impressed with his ability during vital times against Tsonga.
"Murray was immense today," Cowan added. "He was coming into the final in so much confidence, playing his best tennis in every big match.
"Andy was so clear in how he wanted to play and I think that's why he's been able to play such great, great tennis when it really matters.
"What was impressive from Andy was the way he was able to stem the Tsonga attack in the tie-break. But crucially in the tie-break Murray found the first serve again."
Murray won an impressive 74 per cent of his second serve points in Sunday's final and Cowan feels that is the most improved aspect of his game this year.
"Andy's developed pace and variation - the ability to change it up. He used to always be consistent where he hit the serve - it was always in the same spot. Sometimes you need to vary it, go big to the backhand side, forehand, hit it with a little bit more spin, sometimes you have to go into the body. He's started to do that a lot more and that comes from confidence."
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The rankings as they stand
Djokovic: 12,900 points
Murray: 10,985
French capital gains
The regular tour comes to an end with the final Masters event in Paris, starting on Monday, with Djokovic defending his title and 1,000 ranking points.
He beat Murray in last year's final, with the Scot earning 600 points.
If Murray were to enjoy another impressive week in the French capital and lift the trophy next Sunday, he would gain an additional extra 400 points.
Should Djokovic only reach the semi-finals, he would drop 640 points.
How the points tot up if Murray wins in Paris and Djokovic reaches the semi-final:
Djokovic: 12,260
Murray: 11,385
Djokovic mentally ready for Paris
Novak Djokovic insists he is mentally prepared for Paris Masters
Djokovic's big points drop
On Monday, November 7, Djokovic will lose the 1,300 points he amassed for winning the ATP World Tour Finals last November in London, ahead of the start of that tournament on the following Sunday.
And that could be the trigger point for Murray to overtake him.
Murray v Djokovic: The race is on
Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic: Their previous meetings
Murray, who has consistently struggled at the World Tour Finals, won only one match there last year so drops just 200 points.
How it would stand after last season's World Tour Finals points are taken off - if Murray wins in Paris and Djokovic reaches the semi-finals:
Murray: 11,185
Djokovic: 10,960
Check our game-by-game updates from all of Andy Murray's matches at next week's ATP Paris Masters on skysports.com/tennis, our app for mobile devices and iPad and our Twitter account @skysportstennis, live on Sky Sports.
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