Tuesday, October 11, 2016

Tim Clement insists the bookies are wrong to take on Novak Djokovic at the ATP Shanghai Masters

Novak Djokovic: Backed to bounce back from recent problems
Novak Djokovic: Backed to bounce back from recent problems

Novak Djokovic returned for the Shanghai Masters with his sights set on preventing Andy Murray from capturing the season-ending world number one spot.

The Serb made his comeback with a 6-3 6-3 demolition of Fabio Fognini, his first match in a month after failing to defend his Beijing Open title due to an elbow problem, showing intent that he is ready to renew his dominance of the ATP Tour.

That absence allowed Murray to put a 500-point dent in his lead, which is now down to just 1,555 in the 'Race to London' rankings, with Djokovic defending 3,500 in the Shanghai and Paris Masters events plus the World Tour Finals.

Djokovic is naturally rated the favourite to boost his rankings with the 1,000 points on offer, but his odds of 11/8 with Sky Bet are certainly more generous than usual amid doubts over motivation and fitness.

Such concerns are the only explanation for him being odds-against given he has now won 39 or his last 40 matches in Asia and nine of the last 12 hard-court events entered in the last 12 months.

Andy Murray celebrates his China Open win
Andy Murray celebrates his China Open win

Writing off the Serb is typically a perilous position to take, with his final defeat to Stan Wawrinka at the US Open representing the first event in 2016 where he failed to respond to losing a match by claiming the following title on offer, having suffered a first-round loss at the Olympics.

Murray is enjoying his best season to date but that is largely due to his form on clay and grass, with regular top-tier hard-court titles still eluding him.

Sky Bet odds

Will Djokovic master Murray again? He's 9/2 to beat the Scot in the final here.

The Scot has only won one Masters or Grand Slam title on the surface in question since the 2013 Miami Masters. In that period Djokovic has won 17.

While the subjective may want to back 3/1 shot Murray to continue to hunt down Djokovic, the objective suggests that anything close to even-money on the Serb to win a hard-court event is bordering on a licence to print money.

OTHER CONTENDERS

Plenty will also want to take on the top two given Marin Cilic upset odds of 33/1 to win the last Masters event in Cincinnati, but we have not seen back-to-back winners of 1,000 events from outside the 'big four' since 2010.

More relevantly, there hasn't been back-to-back events without Djokovic or Murray claiming a title since 2013, when the absent Roger Federer won in Cincinnati and then Shanghai.

US Open champion Wawrinka is deemed their main rival at 9/1 but he has produced his yearly big performance and lacks the same motivation as his rivals, with a World Tour Finals position secured and the number one spot beyond his reach.

Fourth seed Rafael Nadal (16/1) has no such security as he sits eighth in the 'Race to London' rankings, with Tomas Berdych (40/1) breathing down his neck.

However, the faster courts of the end to the season do not suit his game, hence semi-final runs here being a career best and it would be a surprise if he could improve on that record this week.

Juan Martin del Potro crashed out of the Shanghai Masters on Tuesday
Juan Martin del Potro crashed out of the Shanghai Masters on Tuesday

2013 finalist Juan Martin del Potro seemed to be a real threat to the top two as the only player to have beaten both this year but failed to get out of the blocks, losing in three sets to David Goffin on Tuesday.

Milos Raonic is an 18/1 shot having struggled since his split with coach John McEnroe, but has qualified for the World Tour Finals despite withdrawing from Saturday's Beijing semi-final with Grigor Dimitrov with an ankle injury.

The youthful options which may tempt are recent Japan winner Nick Kyrgios (28/1) and the rapidly-improving duo Alexander Zverev (25/1), who has already dumped Cilic out, and Lucas Pouille (50/1).

THE DRAW

Saturday's draw could not have been much kinder to Djokovic, with Berdych the top seed in his quarter and Nadal in his half. The Serb has won a remarkable 25 of 27 meetings with Berdych and the last seven against Nadal.

Resurgent Beijing finalist Dimitrov (33/1) could await the Serb in the third round while Cilic looked Nadal's main threat in the second quarter before Zverev reasserted suggestions that he is the real deal.

Nadal and Djokovic are seeded to renew their great rivalry in the semis
Nadal and Djokovic are seeded to renew their great rivalry in the semis

Murray is joined by sixth-seed Monfils, who responded to his heavily-criticised US Open semi-final loss to Djokovic by reaching the Tokyo semis, recording decent wins over Gilles Simon and Ivo Karlovic along the way.

The other two main threats clashed in the first round, with Japan Open finalist David Goffin (50/1) getting the better of Del Potro is the first meeting between the pair.

The third section is perhaps the most intriguing, with the ever inconsistent Wawrinka facing little opposition if Raonic is unable to recover in time.

Kyle Edmund (300/1) is seeded to face the Swiss in the second round and a semi-final run could begin to look achievable if he __can spring an upset there.

PREDICTION

I'm going to trust the renewed motivation to bring the best out of Djokovic and back him to put Murray back in his place by claiming a fourth title here in five years.

Odds of 11/8 naturally lack appeal, so I'm going to be a shade bolder by predicting that he will add to a 24-10 lead in their head-to-head for a 9/2 final forecast.

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